Trade War Update on India and Brazil

The White House’s use of tariffs to influence foreign policy continued to escalate on Wednesday. President Trump wanted India to curb the purchase of oil from Russia. India faces another 25% in tariffs if it continues importing Russia’s oil. This adds to the current 25% tariff, so the total rises to 50%. This action aligns with the U.S. seeking a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. India characterized the tariffs as unfair. The country is determined to take steps to protect its national interests. Brazil (EWZ), a BRICs member, faces a 50% tariff on exports to the U.S. President Lula da Silva told Reuters that any further direct talks with the U.S. President would likely be a humiliation. Stock markets are not reacting to the latest tariff threats. Petrobras (PBR) trades in a range of between $12.50 and $13.00. Similarly, Vale (VALE), Itau Unibanco, and Banco Bradesco (BBD) are stable. Only Ambev (ABEV), a brewer, is stuck in a yearlong downtrend. Between June and July, shares of India’s ETF (INDA) peaked at around $55 - $56. The ETF has fallen daily since July 28. Expect selling pressure on India’s index to continue as the U.S. mounts pressure. Investors should consider holding U.S.-based ETFs like the iShares Core S&P 500 (IVV) or the total stock market ETF (VTI).